Friday, January 23, 2009

Disaster

A natural disaster is a disaster caused by nature, such as floods, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, avalanches, lahars (volcanic mudslides), landslides, sinkholes, blizzards, drought, hailstorms, heat waves, hurricanes, tropical storms, typhoons, Ice Ages, tornadoes, and wildfires. Epidemics caused by bacteria or viruses are sometimes considered natural disasters, but sometimes put into a different category. A biological threat such as locusts or toxic fungi could also be considered a natural disaster.


Famine.
Some disasters are on the edge of natural and non-natural. Famines, the chronic lack of food, may be caused by a combination of natural and human factors. Two space-originating categories of natural disaster, both of which rarely effect humans on the surface, include asteroid impacts and solar flares. Although the risk of asteroid impact in the short term may be low, some scientists argue that in the long term, the likelihood of death by asteroid is similar to that of death by traditional natural disasters such as disease.The deadliest natural disasters are famines, which claimed 70 million people during the 20th century alone, with 30 million dying during the famine of 1958–61 in China. In the Soviet Union there were several man-made famines that killed millions, blamed on the collectivist policies of Stalin, the leader of the country at the time. Famines have a history of bringing out the worst in people, including atrocities and cannibalism.

Another of the deadliest natural disasters are epidemics, most notably the Spanish flu of 1918-1919, which killed 50 million — more than World War I, which had occurred just before. Rather than killing infants or the aged, the Spanish flu struck down people in the prime of life. Having a good immune system was no protection against this virus — in fact, it was a liability. The virus is believed to have killed its victims primarily through overactivating the immune system in a process called a cytokine storm.

Volcanoes
Historically, volcanoes may have been the biggest type of natural disaster. Some scientists believe that the eruption of Mt. Toba in Indonesia over 73,000 years ago may have killed off most of the human species, leaving behind only 1,000 - 10,000 breeding pairs. This phenomenon, called a population bottleneck, has been confirmed through genetic analysis.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Introduction:

Humanity has passed through three major evolutionary phases - hunter gatherer , agricultural and technological . It is difficult to generalise on human lifestyles as adaptation to the environment is a continual, cultural and learned process. Instead of genetic adaptation, cultural adaptation has been important. Physical changes are small. Forest dwellers tend to be small, with a light muscular frame (Beazley, 1990). Eastern Mediterranean hunter gatherers of 30,000 to 9,000 years ago stood at five feet ten inches. Agriculturalists of 5,000 to 3,000 years ago, from the same region, only average five foot three inches (Kates, 1994). The American average in the industrial society of today is five foot eight inches. Evidence suggests that both the size and robustness of humans, and their brain volume has decreased over the last 10,000 years or so (Sci. Am, early 1995). For a very detailed history of the past 20,000 years refer to Mithen's (2003) 600 page book.
The traditional classification of human social evolution is into pre-history and recordered history. The latter follows the invention of writing and therefore written historical records. Pre-history is broken down onto 3 periods , according to the materiel used for making tools:
The Stone Age (50,000 BC to 4000 BC),
The Bronze Age (4000 to 2000 BC), and
The Iron Age (1500 BC onwards).
Some texts will explain that the Old Stone Age (the Paleolithic Age (50000 to 12000 BC) ) is the Age of food-gatherers, while the New Stone Age (the New Stone Age or the Neolithic Age (12000 to 4000 BC)) is referred to as the Age of food producers. This puts the Bronze age onwards as the Age of civilization, starting towards the end of the Neolithic Age. In the below discussion, I will look at three major lifestyle groupings:
Hunter gatherer,
Agriculture and
Technological civilisation.
The third is a complex grouping. Civilization requires, or may be defined by, settlement in definite territories, the building of towns and cities, the evolution of defined systems of government and the development of trade and commerce. This social system has and does exist together with the first two.
Firstly, I will delve briefly into the genetic record of our early history.
Genetic History: of modern man:
Some nuclear DNA sequences (including Y-chromosome data) and mtDNA indicate that modern humans originated and migrated relatively recently from a subset of the African population, putting Africa as the home of modern humanity. A study of human Y-chromosome variation in a worldwide sample of over 1,000 men determined that Africans and non-African males shared a common ancestor 59,000 years ago and that the non-African branch of humanity left Africa about 44,000 years ago. Such time estimates are based on the molecular clock hypothesis . Y-chromosome studies tend to misinterpret demographic events related to the origin and spread of populations, underestimating the age of those events. Mike Hammer (1995) at the University of Arizona, sequenced 2,400 bases in the same Y chromosome region from 16 ethnically diverse humans and four chimpanzees, and dated the common ancestral human Y chromosome at 188,000 years with a 95 percent confidence interval from 51,000 to 411,000 years. Other data shows that Africans and non-Africans split about 156,000 years ago (Underhill, et al, 2000), (Ingman, 2000). Within Africa the oldest modern human fossil is just less than 160,000 years old and represented by Homo sapiens idaltu.
Modern humans arose from a single evolutionary event, but our racial diversity illustrates subsequent multiple evolutionary events involving differential survival of populations, geographic range expansions, and migrations. A study of the male Y-chromosome has provided evidence of successful migrations from Africa by different human populations at different times (Underhill, et al. 2001). Underhill's team identified 10 haplogroups (using 131 different haplotypes); unique genetic groupings that could be used to study modern human racial distributions. Using 1000 human samples representing current racial distributions, they established a frequency distribution for the 10 haplogroups. They were able to trace a common African heritage and suggest some population subdivisions, gene flow episodes and colonization events. Their study showed an overall pattern of group differentiation and movement across the world, suggesting population expansions and genetic drift processes that would be expected over tens of thousands of years. This work has laid the foundation for a clearer understanding of our recent human history through the new science of phylogeography.
The two most diverse (and therefore more ancient) groupings (I & II) are found in Africa at low frequencies amongst some Khoisan and South African Bantu individuals, central African Pygmies, and lineages in Sudan, Ethiopia and Mali. A single Sardinian was in Group I and there was an Group II from Pakistan. The genetic information suggests an early diversification, dispersal and widespread distribution of human populations within Africa. Palaeoanthropological records suggest that this occurred during an interglacial 130,000 to 90,000 years ago. This is supported by faunal evidence, showing the presence of modern humans and east African animal species in the Middle East at this time (Underhill, et al. 2001).
Outside of Africa, there is evidence for the early formation of a non-African grouping, represented today by the Australians, New Guineans, southeast Asians, Japanese and central Asians. All Y-chromosomes that are not exclusively African contain an identifying mutation, that originated from one of the two African groups, and evolved into three distinct sub-clusters, representing the deepest structuring of Y-chromosome diversity outside Africa. Palaeoclimatic records suggest an onset of glacial climates 70,000 years ago, accompanied by the fragmentation of African environments. This isolated both northwest and northeastern most Africa from each other and the south. Isolation allowed African populations to evolve the variation later exported out of Africa more than once through multiple dispersals of different African groups. The current diversity found outside Africa is therefore a magnification of a process of diversification within Africa 90,000 to 50,000 years ago. Underhill's genetic study of the Y-chromosome shows further that populations not only trace their ancestry to Africa, but that the descendants replaced archaic human Y chromosomes in Eurasia (Underhill, 2000). The last common ancestor of all non-African human Y-chromosomes, is estimated to be about 40,000 years (31,000-79,000) ago. Numerous Y-chromosome populations have been identified outside of Africa, but their clear definition requires more data. One mutation group alone has split into six Y-chromosome populations. Today there are very distinct Y-chromosome distribution groups requiring further study.
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Civilization


Midtown New York City. Cities are a hallmark of human civilization.

The ruins of Machu Picchu, "the Lost City of the Incas," has become the most recognizable symbol of the Inca civilization.
A civilization is a society or culture group normally defined as a complex society characterized by the practice of agriculture and settlement in towns and cities. Compared with other cultures, members of a civilization are organized into a diverse division of labor and an intricate social hierarchy.
The term civilization is often used as a synonym for the broader term "culture" in both popular and academic circles.[1] Every human being participates in a culture, defined as "the arts, customs, habits... beliefs, values, behavior and material habits that constitute a people's way of life".[2] However, in its most widely used definition, civilization is a descriptive term for a relatively complex agricultural and urban culture. Civilizations can be distinguished from other cultures by their high level of social complexity and organization, and by their diverse economic and cultural activities.
In an older but still frequently used sense, the term "civilization" can be used in a normative manner as well: in societal contexts where complex and urban cultures are assumed to be superior to other "savage" or "barbarian" cultures, the concept of "civilization" is used as a synonym for "cultural (and often moral) superiority of certain groups." In a similar sense, civilization can mean "refinement of thought, manners, or taste".[3]
Contents[hide]
1 Etymology and definition
2 Characteristics
3 Cultural identity
4 Complex systems
5 Future
6 The fall of civilizations
7 Criticism
8 History
8.1 Prehistory
8.1.1 Old World
8.1.2 New World
8.2 Classical Antiquity
9 See also
10 References
10.1 Notes
10.2 Bibliography
10.3 External links
//


Etymology and definition


The word Civilization comes from the Latin word civilis, the genitive form of civis, meaning a "citizen" or "townsman" governed by the law of his city.
In the sixth century, the Roman Emperor Justinian oversaw the consolidation of Roman civil law. The resulting collection is called the Corpus Juris Civilis. In the 11th century, professors at the University of Bologna, Western Europe's first university, rediscovered Corpus Juris Civilis, and its influence began to be felt across Western Europe. In 1388, the word civil appeared in English meaning "of or related to citizens".[4] In 1704, civilization began to mean "a law which makes a criminal process into a civil case." Civilization was not used in its modern sense to mean "the opposite of barbarism" — as contrasted to civility, meaning politeness or civil virtue — until the 18th century.
According to Emile Benveniste (1954[5]), the earlist written occurrence in English of civilization in its modern sense may be found in Adam Ferguson's An Essay on the History of Civil Society (Edinburgh, 1767 - p.2):

Not only the individual advances from infancy to manhood, but the species itself from rudeness to civilization.

. It should be noted that this usage incorporates the concept of superiority and maturity of "civilized" existence, as contrasted to "rudeness", which is used to denote coarseness, as in a lack of refinement or "civility".
Before Benveniste's inquiries, the New English Dictionary quoted James Boswell's conversation with Samuel Johnson concerning the inclusion of Civilization in Johnson's dictionary:

On Monday, March 23 (1772), I found him busy, preparing a fourth edition of his folio Dictionary... He would not admit civilization, but only civility. With great deference to him I thought civilization, from to civilize, better in the sense opposed to barbarity than civility, as it is better to have a distinct word for each sense, than one word with two senses, which civility is, in his way of using it.

Benveniste demonstrated that previous occurrences could be found, which explained the quick adoption of Johnson's definition. In 1775 the dictionary of Ast defined civilization as "the state of being civilized; the act of civilizing"[5], and the term was frequently used by Adam Smith in An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776)[5]. Beside Smith and Ferguson, John Millar also used it in 1771 in his Observations concerning the distinction of ranks in society[5].
As the first occurrence of civilization in French was found by Benveniste in the Marquis de Mirabeau's L'Ami des hommes ou traitĂ© de la population (written in 1756 but published in 1757), Benveniste's query was to know if the English word derived from the French, or if both evolved independently — a question which needed more research. According to him, the word civilization may in fact have been used by Ferguson as soon as 1759[5].
Furthermore, Benveniste notes that, contrasted to civility, a static term, civilization conveys a sense of dynamism. He thus writes that...

It was not only a historical view of society; it was also an optimist and resolutely non theological interpretation of its evolution which asserted itself, sometimes at the insu of those who proclaimed it, and even if some of them, and first of all Mirabeau, still counted religion as the first factor of 'civilization.[6][5]

Another source of the word may relate to chivalry: a set of rules of engagement, originally for knights in warfare, but later expanded to cover conduct of knighthood or nobility. The English 'chivalry' comes from the French 'chevalier': a horseman. England and France would therefore have given rise to the terms at similar time.


Characteristics

26th century BC Sumerian cuneiform script in Sumerian language, listing gifts to the high priestess of Adab on the occasion of her election. One of the earliest examples of human writing.
Social scientists such as V. Gordon Childe have named a number of traits that distinguish a civilization from other kinds of society.[7] Civilizations have been distinguished by their means of subsistence, types of livelihood, settlement patterns, forms of government, social stratification, economic systems, literacy, and other cultural traits. McDonalds is sometimes considered a civilization, as it has its own government, education system, currency, and social classes, etc.
All human civilizations have depended on agriculture for subsistence. Growing food on farms results in a surplus of food, particularly when people use intensive agricultural techniques such as irrigation and crop rotation. Grain surpluses have been especially important because they can be stored for a long time. A surplus of food permits some people to do things besides produce food for a living: early civilizations included artisans, priests and priestesses, and other people with specialized careers. A surplus of food results in a division of labour and a more diverse range of human activity, a defining trait of civilizations.
Civilizations have distinctly different settlement patterns from other societies. The word civilization is sometimes defined as "a word that simply means 'living in cities'".[8] Non-farmers gather in cities to work and to trade.
Compared with other societies, civilizations have a more complex political structure, namely the state. State societies are more stratified than other societies; there is a greater difference among the social classes. The ruling class, normally concentrated in the cities, has control over much of the surplus and exercises its will through the actions of a government or bureaucracy. Morton Fried, a conflict theorist, and Elman Service, an integration theorist, have classified human cultures based on political systems and social inequality. This system of classification contains four categories:
Hunter-gatherer bands, which are generally egalitarian.
Horticultural/pastoral societies in which there are generally two inherited social classes; chief and commoner.
Highly stratified structures, or chiefdoms, with several inherited social classes: king, noble, freemen, serf and slave.
Civilizations, with complex social hierarchies and organized, institutional governments.[9]
Economically, civilizations display more complex patterns of ownership and exchange than less organized societies. Living in one place allows people to accumulate more personal possessions than nomadic people. Some people also acquire landed property, or private ownership of the land. Because a percentage of people in civilizations do not grow their own food, they must trade their goods and services for food in a market system, or be receive food through the levy of tribute, redistributive taxation, tarrifs or tithes from the food producing segment of the population. Early civilizations developed money as a medium of exchange for these increasingly complex transactions. To oversimplify, in a village the potter makes a pot for the brewer and the brewer compensates the potter by giving him a certain amount of beer. In a city, the potter may need a new roof, the roofer may need new shoes, the cobbler may need new horseshoes, the blacksmith may need a new coat, and the tanner may need a new pot. These people may not be personally acquainted with one another and their needs may not occur all at the same time. A monetary system is a way of organizing these obligations to ensure that they are fulfilled fairly.

These ten Indus glyphs were discovered near the northern gate of Dholavira.
Writing, developed first by people in Sumer, is considered a hallmark of civilization and "appears to accompany the rise of complex administrative bureaucracies or the conquest state."[10] Traders and bureaucrats relied on writing to keep accurate records. Like money, writing was necessitated by the size of the population of a city and the complexity of its commerce among people who are not all personally acquainted with each other.
Aided by their division of labor and central government planning, civilizations have developed many other diverse cultural traits. These include organized religion, development in the arts, and countless new advances in science and technology.


Cultural identity


"Civilization" can also describe the culture of a complex society, not just the society itself. Every society, civilization or not, has a specific set of ideas and customs, and a certain set of items and arts, that make it unique. Civilizations have even more intricate cultures, including literature, professional art, architecture, organized religion, and complex customs associated with the elite. Civilization is such in nature that it seeks to spread, to have more, to expand, and the means by which to do this.
Nevertheless, some tribes or people remained uncivilized even to this day (2007). These cultures are called by some "primitive," a term that is regarded by others as pejorative. "Primitive" implies in some way that a culture is "first" (Latin = primus), and as all cultures are contemporaries today's so called primitive cultures are in no way antecedent to those we consider civilized. Many anthropologists use the term "non-literate" to describe these peoples. In the USA and Canada, where people of such cultures were the original inhabitants before being displaced by European settlers, they use the term "First Nations." Generally, the First Nations of North America had hierarchical governments, religion, and a barter system, and oral transmission of their traditions, cultures, laws, etc. Respect for the wisdom of elders and for their natural environment (7th Generation decision-making) sustained these cultures for over 10,000 years.
The civilized world has been spread by invasion, religious conversion the extension of bureaucratic control and trade, and by introducing agriculture, and writing to non-literate peoples. Some non civilised people may willingly adapt to civilized behaviour. But civilization is also spread by force: if a non-literate group does not wish to use agriculture or accept a certain religion it is often forced to do so by the civilized people, and they usually succeed due to their more advanced technology, and higher population densities. Civilizations often use religion to justify its actions, claiming for example that the uncivilized are "primitive," savages, barbarians or the like, which should be subjugated by civilization.
The intricate culture associated with civilization has a tendency to spread to and influence other cultures, sometimes assimilating them into the civilization (a classic example being Chinese civilization and its influence on Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and so forth, all of them sharing the fact that they belong to an East Asian civilization, sharing Confucianism, Mahayana Buddhism, a "Mandarin" class an educated understanding of Chinese ideograms and much else). Many civilizations are actually large cultural spheres containing many nations and regions. The civilization in which someone lives is that person's broadest cultural identity.
Whereas the etiology of civilization is Latin or Roman, defined above as the application of justice by "civil" means, one may also examine and reflect upon Jewish or Hebrew civilization. A Hebrew "civilization" is defined not as an expression or extension of the subjective trappings of culture and society, but rather as a human society and/or culture being an expression of objective moral and ethical moorings as they are known, understood and applied in accordance with the Mosaic Covenant.[citation needed] A "human" civilization, in Hebrew terms for instance, may contrast sharply with conventional notions about "civilization." A "human" civilization, therein, would be an expression and extension of the two most basic pillars of human "civilization." These two pillars are, honest standardized weights and measures and a moral and healthy constitution. Everything else, whether technology, science, art, music, etc., is by this definition considered as commentary. Indeed, to the degree the surface terrain of a human society, i.e., culture is "civilized," is to the degree the internal terrain (characteristics, personality or substance) of the people and leadership must also have been inoculated by, and inculcated with a moral foundation. The Biblically described Sodom, for instance, while being a society of people with a culture, would by Jewish or Biblical standards of "civility" have been uncivilized. And while the Roman sentiment is largely focused upon how justice must "appear" to be done in a "civil" manner, the Hebrew or Biblical approach to justice, in principle, is never limited to subjective pretenses or appearance, but more importantly, justice must be predicated upon objective principles. Ultimately, there is no true or lasting "civility" for any man in the absence of moral composure.[citation needed]
Many historians have focused on these broad cultural spheres and have treated civilizations as single units. One example is early twentieth-century philosopher Oswald Spengler,[11] even though he uses the German word "Kultur," "culture," for what we here call a "civilization." He said that a civilization's coherence is based around a single primary cultural symbol. Civilizations experience cycles of birth, life, decline and death, often supplanted by a new civilization with a potent new culture, formed around a compelling new cultural symbol.
This "unified culture" concept of civilization also influenced the theories of historian Arnold J. Toynbee in the mid-twentieth century. Toynbee explored civilization processes in his multi-volume A Study of History, which traced the rise and, in most cases, the decline of 21 civilizations and five "arrested civilizations." Civilizations generally declined and fell, according to Toynbee, because of the failure of a "creative minority", through moral or religious decline, to meet some important challenge, rather than mere economic or environmental causes.
Samuel P. Huntington similarly defines a civilization as "the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species." Besides giving a definition of a civilization, Huntington has also proposed several theories about civilizations, discussed below.

Complex systems

The introduction to this article provides insufficient context for those unfamiliar with the subject.Please help improve the article with a good introductory style.
Another group of theorists, making use of systems theory, looks at a civilization as a complex system, i.e., a framework by which a group of objects can be analyzed that work in concert to produce some result. Civilizations can be seen as networks of cities that emerge from pre-urban cultures, and are defined by the economic, political, military, diplomatic, and cultural interactions among them. Any organization is a complex social system, and a civilization is a large organization. Systems theory helps guard against superficial but misleading analogies in the study and description of civilizations.
For example, urbanist Jane Jacobs defines cities as the economic engines that work to create large networks of people. The main process that creates these city networks, she says, is "import replacement". Import replacement is the process by which peripheral cities begin to replace goods and services that were formerly imported from more advanced cities. Successful import replacement creates economic growth in these peripheral cities, and allows these cities to then export their goods to less developed cities in their own hinterlands, creating new economic networks. So Jacobs explores economic development across wide networks instead of treating each society as an isolated cultural sphere.
Systems theorists look at many types of relations between cities, including economic relations, cultural exchanges, and political/diplomatic/military relations. These spheres often occur on different scales. For example, trade networks were, until the nineteenth century, much larger than either cultural spheres or political spheres. Extensive trade routes, including the Silk Road through Central Asia and Indian Ocean sea routes linking the Roman Empire, Persian Empire, India, and China, were well established 2000 years ago, when these civilizations scarcely shared any political, diplomatic, military, or cultural relations. The first evidence of such long distance trade is in the ancient world. During the Uruk phase Guillermo Algaze has argued that trade relations connected Egypt, Mesopotamia, Iran and Afghanistan.[12] Resin found later in the Royal Tombs of Ur it is suggested was traded northwards from Mozambique.
Many theorists argue that the entire world has already become integrated into a single "world system", a process known as globalization. Different civilizations and societies all over the globe are economically, politically, and even culturally interdependent in many ways. There is debate over when this integration began, and what sort of integration – cultural, technological, economic, political, or military-diplomatic – is the key indicator in determining the extent of a civilization. David Wilkinson has proposed that economic and military-diplomatic integration of the Mesopotamian and Egyptian civilizations resulted in the creation of what he calls the "Central Civilization" around 1500 BC.[13] Central Civilization later expanded to include the entire Middle East and Europe, and then expanded to a global scale with European colonization, integrating the Americas, Australia, China and Japan by the nineteenth century. According to Wilkinson, civilizations can be culturally heterogeneous, like the Central Civilization, or relatively homogeneous, like the Japanese civilization. What Huntington calls the "clash of civilizations" might be characterized by Wilkinson as a clash of cultural spheres within a single global civilization. Others point to the Crusades as the first step in globalization. The more conventional viewpoint is that networks of societies have expanded and shrunk since ancient times, and that the current globalized economy and culture is a product of recent European colonialism.

Future

Active regional blocs, which enhance nations' cooperation and form modern civilizations
See also: Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth
Political scientist Samuel Huntington[14] has argued that the defining characteristic of the 21st century will be a clash of civilizations. According to Huntington, conflicts between civilizations will supplant the conflicts between nation-states and ideologies that characterized the 19th and 20th centuries. These views have been strongly challenged by others like Edward Said and Mohammed Asudi [2].
Currently, world civilization is in a stage that has created what may be characterized as an industrial society, superseding the agrarian society that preceded it. Some futurists believe that civilization is undergoing another transformation, and that world society will become a so-called informational society.
Some environmental scientists see the world entering a Planetary Phase of Civilization, characterized by a shift away from independent, disconnected nation-states to a world of increased global connectivity with worldwide institutions, environmental challenges, economic systems, and consciousness.[15][16] In an attempt to better understand what a Planetary Phase of Civilization might look like in the current context of declining natural resources and increasing consumption, the Global scenario group used scenario analysis to arrive at three archetypal futures: Barbarization, in which increasing conflicts result in either a fortress world or complete societal breakdown; Conventional Worlds, in which market forces or Policy reform slowly precipitate more sustainable practices; and a Great Transition, in which either the sum of fragmented Eco-Communalism movements add up to a sustainable world or globally coordinated efforts and initiatives result in a new sustainability paradigm.[17]
The Kardashev scale classifies civilizations based on their level of technological advancement, specifically measured by the amount of energy a civilization is able to harness. The Kardashev scale makes provisions for civilizations far more technologically advanced than any currently known to exist. (see also: Civilizations and the Future, Space civilization)

The fall of civilizations

Main article: Societal collapse
There have been many explanations put forward for the collapse of civilization.
Edward Gibbon's massive work "The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire" began an interest in the Fall of Civilizations, that had begun with the historical divisions of Petrarch[18] between the Classical period of Ancient Greece and Rome, the succeeding Medieval Ages, and the Renaissance. For Gibbon:-
"The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the cause of the destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight. The story of the ruin is simple and obvious; and instead of inquiring why the Roman Empire was destroyed, we should rather be surprised that it has subsisted for so long."[Gibbon, Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, 2nd ed., vol. 4, ed. by J. B. Bury (London, 1909), pp. 173-174.] Gibbon suggested the final act of the collapse of Rome was the fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Turks in 1453 AD.
Theodor Mommsen in his "History of Rome", suggested Rome collapsed with the collapse of the Western Roman Empire in 476 AD and he also tended towards a biological analogy of "genesis," "growth," "senescence," "collapse" and "decay."
Oswald Spengler, in his "Decline of the West" rejected Petrarch's chronological division, and suggested that there had been only eight "mature civilizations." Growing cultures, he argued, tend to develop into imperialistic civilizations which expand and ultimately collapse, with democratic forms of government ushering in plutocracy and ultimately imperialism.
Arnold J. Toynbee in his "A Study of History" suggested that there had been a much larger number of civilizations, including a small number of arrested civilizations, and that all civilizations tended to go through the cycle identified by Mommsen. The cause of the fall of a civilization occurred when a cultural elite became a parasitic elite, leading to the rise of internal and external proletariats.
Joseph Tainter in "The Collapse of Complex Societies" suggested that there were diminishing returns to complexity, due to which, as states achieved a maximum permissible complexity, they would decline when further increases actually produced a negative return. Tainter suggested that Rome achieved this figure in the 2nd Century AD.
Jared Diamond in his recent book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" suggests five major reasons for the collapse of 41 studied cultures.
Environmental damage, such as deforestation and soil erosion
Climate change
Dependence upon long-distance trade for needed resources
Increasing levels of internal and external violence, such as war or invasion
Societal responses to internal and environmental problems
Peter Turchin in his Historical Dynamics and Andrey Korotayev et al. in their Introduction to Social Macrodynamics, Secular Cycles, and Millennial Trends suggest a number of mathematical models describing collapse of agrarian civilizations. For example, the basic logic of Turchin's "fiscal-demographic" model can be outlined as follows: during the initial phase of a sociodemographic cycle we observe relatively high levels of per capita production and consumption, which leads not only to relatively high population growth rates, but also to relatively high rates of surplus production. As a result, during this phase the population can afford to pay taxes without great problems, the taxes are quite easily collectible, and the population growth is accompanied by the growth of state revenues. During the intermediate phase, the increasing overpopulation leads to the decrease of per capita production and consumption levels, it becomes more and more difficult to collect taxes, and state revenues stop growing, whereas the state expenditures grow due to the growth of the population controlled by the state. As a result, during this phase the state starts experiencing considerable fiscal problems. During the final pre-collapse phases the overpopulation leads to further decrease of per capita production, the surplus production further decreases, state revenues shrink, but the state needs more and more resources to control the growing (though with lower and lower rates) population. Eventually this leads to famines, epidemics, state breakdown, and demographic and civilization collapse (Peter Turchin. Historical Dynamics. Princeton University Press, 2003:121–127).
Peter Heather argues in his book The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History of Rome and the Barbarians[19] that this civilization did not end for moral or economic reasons, but because centuries of contact with barbarians across the frontier generated its own nemesis by making them a much more sophisticated and dangerous adversary. The fact that Rome needed to generate ever greater revenues to equip and re-equip armies that were for the first time repeatedly defeated in the field, led to the dismemberment of the Empire. Although this argument is specific to Rome, it can also be applied to the Asiatic Empire of the Egyptians, to the Han and Tang dynasties of China, to the Muslim Abbasid Caliphate, and others.
Bryan Ward-Perkins, in his book The Fall of Rome and the End of Civilization[20] shows the real horrors associated with the collapse of a civilization for the people who suffer its effects, unlike many revisionist historians who downplay this. The collapse of complex society meant that even basic plumbing disappeared from the continent for 1,000 years. Similar Dark Age collapses are seen with the Late Bronze Age collapse in the Eastern Mediterranean, the collapse of the Maya, on Easter Island and elsewhere.
Arthur Demarest argues in Ancient Maya: The Rise and Fall of a Rainforest Civilization[21], using a holistic perspective to the most recent evidence from archaeology, paleoecology, and epigraphy, that no one explanation is sufficient but that a series of erratic, complex events, including loss of soil fertility, drought and rising levels of internal and external violence led to the disintegration of the courts of Mayan kingdoms which began a spiral of decline and decay. He argues that the collapse of the Maya has lessons for civilization today.
Jeffrey A. McNeely has recently suggested that "A review of historical evidence shows that past civilizations have tended to over-exploit their forests, and that such abuse of important resources has been a significant factor in the decline of the over-exploiting society."[22]
Thomas Homer-Dixon in "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization", considers that the fall in the energy return on investments; the energy expended to energy yield ratio, is central to limiting the survival of civilizations. The degree of social complexity is associated strongly, he suggests, with the amount of disposable energy environmental, economic and technological systems allow. When this amount decreases civilizations either have to access new energy sources or they will collapse.


Saturday, January 10, 2009

world


Background

Main article: Causes of World War II
In the aftermath of World War I, a defeated Germany signed the Treaty of Versailles.[6] This caused Germany to lose a significant portion of its territory, prohibited the annexation of other states, limited the size of German armed forces and imposed massive reparations. Russia's civil war led to the creation of the Soviet Union which soon was under the control of Joseph Stalin. In Italy, Benito Mussolini seized power as a fascist dictator promising to create a "New Roman Empire."[7] The Kuomintang (KMT) party in China launched a unification campaign against regional warlords and nominally unified China in the mid-1920s, but was soon embroiled in a civil war against its former Chinese communist allies. In 1931, an increasingly militaristic Japanese Empire, which had long sought influence in China[8] as the first step of its right to rule Asia, used the Mukden Incident as justification to invade Manchuria; the two nations then fought several small conflicts, in Shanghai, Rehe and Hebei until the Tanggu Truce in 1933. Afterwards Chinese volunteer forces continued the resistance to Japanese aggression in Manchuria, and Chahar and Suiyuan.

German troops at the 1935 Nuremberg Rally.
Adolf Hitler, after an unsuccessful attempt to overthrow the German government in 1923, became the leader of Germany in 1933. He abolished democracy, espousing a radical racially motivated revision of the world order, and soon began a massive rearming campaign.[9] This worried France and the United Kingdom, who had lost much in the previous war, as well as Italy, which saw its territorial ambitions threatened by those of Germany.[10] To secure its alliance, the French allowed Italy a free hand in Ethiopia, which Italy desired to conquer. The situation was aggravated in early 1935 when the Saarland was legally reunited with Germany and Hitler repudiated the Treaty of Versailles, speeding up remilitarisation and introducing conscription. Hoping to contain Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy formed the Stresa Front. The Soviet Union, concerned due to Germany's goals of capturing vast areas of eastern Europe, concluded a treaty of mutual assistance with France.
Before taking effect though, the Franco-Soviet pact was required to go through the bureaucracy of the League of Nations, rendering it essentially toothless[11][12] and in June 1935, the United Kingdom made an independent naval agreement with Germany easing prior restrictions. The United States, concerned with events in Europe and Asia, passed the Neutrality Act in August.[13] In October, Italy invaded Ethiopia, with Germany the only major European nation supporting her invasion. Italy then revoked objections to Germany's goal of making Austria a satellite state.[14]
In direct violation of the Versailles and Locarno treaties, Hitler remilitarized the Rhineland in March 1936. He received little response from other European powers.[15] When the Spanish Civil War broke out in July, Hitler and Mussolini supported fascist GeneralĂ­simo Francisco Franco's nationalist forces in his civil war against the Soviet-supported Spanish Republic. Both sides used the conflict to test new weapons and methods of warfare[16] and the nationalists would prove victorious in early 1939.
With tensions mounting, efforts to strengthen or consolidate power were made. In October, Germany and Italy formed the Rome-Berlin Axis and a month later Germany and Japan, each believing communism and the Soviet Union in particular to be a threat, signed the Anti-Comintern Pact, which Italy would join in the following year. In China, the Kuomintang and communist forces agreed on a ceasefire to present a united front to oppose Japan.[17]

Chronology
Other dates for the beginning of war include the Japanese invasion of Manchuria in 1931,[18][19] the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War in 1937,[20][21] or one of several other events. Other sources follow A. J. P. Taylor, who holds that there was a simultaneous Sino-Japanese War in East Asia, and a Second European War in Europe and her colonies, but they did not become a World War until they merged in 1941; at which point the war continued until 1945. This article uses the conventional dating.[22]
The end of the War also has several dates. Some sources end it from the armistice of August 14, 1945, rather than the formal surrender; in some European histories, it ended on V-E Day. The Treaty of Peace with Japan was not signed until 1951.

Course of the war
See also: Timeline of World War II

War in China

Japanese forces during the Battle of Wuhan.
In mid-1937, following the Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Japan began a full invasion of China. The Soviets quickly lent support to China, effectively ending China's prior cooperation with Germany. Starting at Shanghai, the Japanese pushed Chinese forces back, capturing the capital Nanjing in December. In June 1938 Chinese forces stalled the Japanese advance by flooding the Yellow River; though this bought time to prepare their defenses at Wuhan, the city was still taken by October.[23] During this time, Japanese and Soviet forces engaged in a minor skirmish at Lake Khasan; in May 1939, they became involved in a more serious border war[24] that ended with signing a cease-fire agreement on September 15 and restoring the status quo.[25]

War breaks out in Europe
In Europe, Germany and Italy were becoming bolder. In March 1938, Germany annexed Austria, again provoking little response from other European powers.[26] Encouraged, Hitler began making claims on the Sudetenland, a Czechoslovakian province with predominant ethnic German population; France and Britain conceded these for a promise of no further territorial demands.[27] However, soon after that, Germany and Italy forced Czechoslovakia to cede part of her remaining territories to Hungary and Poland. In March 1939 Germany invaded the rump of Czechoslovakia to split it onto the German Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia and pro-German Slovak Republic.
Alarmed, and with Hitler making further demands on Danzig, France and Britain guaranteed their support for Polish independence; when Italy conquered Albania in April, the same guarantee was extended to Romania and Greece.[28] Shortly after the Franco-British pledges to Poland, Germany and Italy formalized their own alliance with the Pact of Steel.

German Heinkel He 111 planes bombing Warsaw in 1939
In April, 1938, the USSR launched the tripartite alliance negotiations with the UK and France in an attempt to contain Germany.[29] However, these negotiations failed due to mutual mistrust[30] and because the collective security system in Europe was severely undermined by the Munich agreement and the subsequent events.[31] Apprehensive of a possible war with Hitler while the Western powers remained neutral or tacitly favorable to Hitler[32], the Soviet Union signed the non-aggression pact with Germany, including a secret agreement to split Poland and Eastern Europe between them.[33]

Soviet and German officers in Poland, September 1939.
On September 1, 1939, Adolf Hitler launched his invasion of Poland and World War II broke out. France, Britain, and the countries of the Commonwealth declared war on Germany but provided little military support to Poland other than a small French attack into the Saarland.[34] On September 17, 1939, after signing an armistice with Japan, the Soviets launched their own invasion of Poland.[35] By early October, the campaign ended with division of Poland among Germany, the Soviet Union, Lithuania and Slovakia[36], although officially Poland never surrendered.



At the same time as the battle in Poland, Japan launched its first attack against Changsha, a strategically important Chinese city, but was repulsed by early October.[37]
Following the invasion of Poland, the Soviet Union began moving troops into the Baltic States. Finnish resistance to similar pressure by the Soviet Union in late November led to the four-month Winter War, ending with Finnish concessions.[38] France and the United Kingdom, treating the Soviet attack on Finland as tantamount to entering the war on the side of the Germans[39] responded to the Soviet invasion by supporting its expulsion from the League of Nations.[39] Though China had the authority to veto such an action, it was unwilling to alienate itself from either the Western powers or the Soviet Union and instead abstained.[39] The Soviet Union was displeased by this course of action and as a result suspended all military aid to China.[39] By June 1940, the Soviet Armed Forces completed the occupation of the Baltic States.[40]

German troops in Paris after the fall of France.
In Western Europe, British troops deployed to the Continent, but neither Germany nor the Allies launched direct attacks on the other. In April, Germany invaded Denmark and Norway to secure shipments of iron-ore from Sweden which the allies would try to disrupt. Denmark immediately capitulated, and despite Allied support, Norway was conquered within two months.[41] British discontent over the Norwegian campaign led to the replacement of Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain by Winston Churchill on May 10, 1940.[42]

Axis advances
On that same day, Germany invaded France and the Low Countries. The Netherlands and Belgium were overrun using blitzkrieg tactics in a few weeks. The French fortified Maginot Line was circumvented by a flanking movement through the Ardennes region, mistakenly perceived by France as an impenetrable natural barrier against armored vehicles. British troops were forced to evacuate the continent at Dunkirk, abandoning their heavy equipment by the end of the month.[43] On June 10, Italy invaded, declaring war on both France and the United Kingdom;[43] twelve days later France surrendered and was soon divided into German and Italian occupation zones,[44] and an unoccupied rump state under the Vichy Regime. On July 14, the British attacked the French fleet in Algeria to prevent their seizure by Germany.[45]

The RAF Supermarine Spitfire, used extensively during the Battle of Britain.
With France neutralized, Germany began an air superiority campaign over Britain to prepare for an invasion.[46] The campaign failed and by September the invasion plans were cancelled. Using newly captured French ports the German Navy enjoyed success against an over-extended Royal Navy, using U-boats against British shipping in the Atlantic.[47] Italy began operations in the Mediterranean, initiating a siege of Malta in June, conquering British Somaliland in August, and making an incursion into British-held Egypt in early September. Japan increased its blockade of China in September by seizing several bases in the northern part of the now-isolated French Indochina.[48]





Throughout this period, the neutral United States took measures to assist China and the Western Allies. In November 1939, the American Neutrality Act was amended to allow Cash and carry purchases by the Allies.[49] In 1940, following the German capture of Paris, the size of United States Navy was significantly increased and after the Japanese incursion into Indochina, the United States embargoed iron, steel and mechanical parts against Japan.[50] In September, the United States further agreed to a trade of American destroyers for British bases.[51] Still, a large majority of the American public continued to oppose any direct military intervention into the conflict well into 1941.[52]
At the end of September the Tripartite Pact between Japan, Italy and Germany formalized the Axis Powers. The pact stipulated, with the exception of the Soviet Union, any country not in the war which attacked any Axis Power would be forced to go to war against all three.[53] The Soviet Union expressed interest in joining the Tripartite Pact, sending a modified draft to Germany in November and offering a very German-favourable economic deal;[54] while Germany remained silent on the former, they accepted the latter.[55] Regardless of the pact, the United States continued to support the United Kingdom and China by introducing the Lend-Lease policy[56] and creating a security zone spanning roughly half of the Atlantic Ocean where the United States Navy protected British convoys.[57] As a result, Germany and the United States found themselves engaged in sustained, if undeclared, naval warfare in the North Atlantic by October 1941, even though the United States remained officially neutral.[58]
The Axis expanded in November 1940 when Hungary, Slovakia and Romania joined the Tripartite Pact.[59] These countries participated in the subsequent invasion of the USSR, with Romania making the largest contribution in order to recapture territory ceded to the USSR and pursue its leader's desire to combat communism.[60]
In October, Italy invaded Greece but within days were repulsed and pushed back into Albania, where a stalemate soon occurred.[61] Shortly after this, in Africa, Commonwealth forces launched offensives against Egypt and Italian East Africa. By early 1941, with Italian forces having been pushed back into Libya by the Commonwealth, Churchill ordered a dispatch of troops from Africa to bolster the Greeks. The Italian Navy also suffered significant defeats, with the Royal Navy putting three Italian battleships out of commission via carrier attack at Taranto, and several more warships neutralized at Cape Matapan.[62]

German paratroopers invading Crete.
The Germans soon intervened to assist Italy. Hitler sent German forces to Libya in February and by the end of March they had launched an offensive against the diminished Commonwealth forces. In under a month, Commonwealth forces were pushed back into Egypt with the exception of the besieged port of Tobruk. The Commonwealth attempted to dislodge Axis forces in May and again in June, but failed on both occasions. In early April